In Greek Mythology, Cassandra was the daughter of King Priam and Queen
Hecuba of Troy. Her beauty was so extraordinary that Apollo fell in love with
her, and as a gift to show his devotion, he granted her the ability to know the
future. But when she refused his love, he then cursed her by making it so
that no one would ever believe her predictions. Cassandra had perfect
knowledge of the future (she even warned the Trojans about the Trojan horse)
and yet nobody would ever believe her - a frustrating curse in the extreme.
Today, this same extreme frustration is shared by many people who have
extensively read about and carefully studied our unfolding sustainability
crisis. These modern day Cassandras clearly understand that (unabated) the
current trends in climate disruption, peak oil, water depletion, and soil
degradation, combined with a rapidly increasing human population, will soon
result in a disaster of unimaginable proportions.
These frustrated Cassandras have studied the facts, have integrated all of the
information, and have done the math. The conclusion is clear - if we don't act
soon, within a few decades we will experience a violent, chaotic, and massive
human die-off.
Those of us who have spent the many, many hours of reading, studying and
discussing this problem have all come to the same conclusion. Yet in our
attempts to warn the general public, we all experience the same response.
The (less informed) public simply does not believe us. Often they will argue
that we must be wrong - even though they are often fundamentally unaware
of the facts.
This "Cassandra Dilemma" that we face is itself a hotly debated and discussed
topic within the community of sustainability activists. "Why won't they listen
to us? Why can't we get them to read even the most basic information about
the issue? How can we get them wake up to the danger?"
Unfortunately, a crisis that unfolds in slow motion is easy to ignore. As each
day comes and goes - peak oil, population growth, soil degradation, water
shortages, and climate disruption all seem to be no worse than the day
before. The vast majority of people never notice the gradual, yet inexorable
deterioration of our planet's life support system.
Clearly, for most people, apathy, denial, and false hope obscure the reality of
the danger ahead. The essential question then becomes: How can their
apathy, denial, and false hope ever be overcome? The Cassandras among us
have completely failed so far.
I think I know why.
I have a friend, a single man, who is facing foreclosure on a small hobby farm
he bought over a decade ago. It has been the focus of his life for many years,
and soon now he will have to sell off all of his farm toys, abandon the
property, and make a new and very different life for himself. Currently,
however, he's stuck. He isn't selling anything and he hasn't made any plans.
He lives day-to-day on his farm, basically pretending that he can go on there
indefinitely, simply ignoring the disaster that looms in his future.
I recently pressed him about getting going on a new plan, insisting that time
was running out. His answer was profound, and directly applicable to our
current Cassandra Dilemma. He said he was unable to "conceptualize a
future". That even when he tried, he could not "see" what lay ahead for him.
And so he was stuck.
I think that may be the key to understanding this Cassandra Dilemma. I
think civilization suffers from an inability to conceptualize the future.
By way of explanation, let's try a thought experiment. Assume for a moment
that we have developed a 'worm-hole' camera that let's us see (literally) into
the future. It operates like a camera and can be pointed anywhere at any time
in the future. We will use this 'Cassandra camera' to go forward several
decades to a time during the height of the predicted collapse. Food is scarce,
people are desperate, chaos and extreme violence are rampant, children are
killing other children, cannibalism is commonplace.
Then we show these videos to everyone on today's Earth, and explain that this
is their (or their children's) future if we fail to act soon. After viewing these
horrifying images, what lies ahead becomes completely conceptualized to
everyone.
Would that have an impact on the general public? Would that jolt people out
of their apathy and denial? I think so!
Another example - which of these actions have had the biggest effect on
controlling the methamphetamine danger to our youth: an in-depth article
about the effects and medical dangers of meth addiction - or - a billboard with
simply a picture of a hollow-faced, toothless, stringy-haired meth-addict?
Of course it is the billboard. The billboard clearly conceptualizes a future
that should be avoided. The article, though it is far more informative, does
not connect in a way that could jolt someone out of denial. It is easy to ignore
the article, but impossible to deny the picture.
And today, the single most successful NGO effort to reduce population comes
from The Population Media Center in the form of television soap operas. They
have taken the entertainment-education theories of Miguel Sabido and
created soap operas that portray an improved lifestyle through educating
women and providing them with birth choices. These television shows clearly
conceptualize a better future if certain behaviors are adopted. And they work.
But instead, we Cassandras continue putting out scholarly essays, books, and
videos. We attempt to convince through our solid logic and our depth of
information. We debate the nits and details of peak oil and population
projections. We argue about which solution is best, while at the same time
expressing that it doesn't really matter because no one will do it anyway.
I assert that what we Cassandras are doing is exactly what is described in that
worn-out definition of insanity: "Insanity is doing the same thing
over-and-over again, and then expecting a different result."
Dr. Jack Alpert insists that no real action will take place until the general
public realizes that in the not too distant future, their children and
grandchildren will become killers, or be killed - that their children or
grandchildren will eat other people, or be eaten. I think he is correct -
brutally harsh, but still correct.
But since we don't yet have the 'Cassandra Camera', how can we
conceptualize this future for the general public? How can we help them lift
their fog of apathy, denial, and false hope and then form a clear impression of
the danger ahead?
I think I have an answer. For the last eighteen months I've been working on
this problem, and I believe I've come up with a creative and unique solution.
Bear with me here - this gets a bit complicated.
The first part: I've written a book (well, half a book) called "The Corn Guild".
This is a work of fiction, a fast-paced thriller intended for the general public. It
covers a period from 2028 to 2036, a period that chronicles the beginning of
collapse (a time when the general public is just beginning to be concerned
and scared), to the actual collapse event in the year 2036. And while it is
primarily intended to be an accessible easy read, it also educates the reader
along the way (much like my earlier novel "The Eden Proposition").
However, the book is the small part of this effort. The big part - the unique
and creative part - is called "The Faminarchy Project". The Faminarchy project
is a website ( www.faminarchy.com ) where The Corn Guild book can be read
(for free) in its entirety. The plot-line of "The Corn Guild" ends just as the
collapse event begins in 2036. This is the 'set-up'.
At the Faminarchy website I am asking others (those concerned about
sustainability, or even those who are just interested in writing) to contribute a
short story about what will happen during this collapse event in 2036 (there
are several examples of possible plot lines provided). Like any fiction, these
stories will have specific characters, in a specific locale, doing specific things
(these stories are not another opportunity for a generalized scholarly essay!).
These 'famine stories' will then all (unless wildly inappropriate) be published
on the website as they come in. I encourage the writers to delve into their
dark places and create horrifying and extreme stories of chaos and violence -
nothing hopeful. I'm betting that this exercise in group creativity will yield
many extraordinary (and frightening!) efforts.
This aggregation of famine stories will then force those who read them, and
especially those who write them, to experience a clear conceptualization of
our shared and dangerous future. Lacking the Cassandra camera, this is
perhaps the best we can do.
I am reaching beyond the usual sustainability suspects by contacting as many
university creative writing programs as I can. As we all know, it is essential
that we find a way to get younger generations involved. And I will make every
effort that I can to publicize the website through Facebook and Twitter in
order to get the widest possible attention and readership. I believe there is a
chance that this could get substantial traction - it is a unique idea.
If you believe this to be a valuable effort, please forward this essay to everyone
you know. And please, go to www.faminarchy.com for further information. You
can read "The Corn Guild" there. I'm sure you will find it to be an informative
and intriguing read, a non-stop page-turner! Then, put on your
frustrated-fiction-writer cap (you know you have one!) and create your very
own short story masterpiece. You can do this.
It is essential that we find a way to increase awareness of the real danger
ahead. Only then can steps be taken to avoid the abyss.
Please help with this project.
The Cassandra Dilemma